Forecasts in Freight Tenders

Historical shipment data is a very good basis for a freight tender. It shows which transports actually took place:

• which lanes were run
• which shipment volumes occurred
• which transport structures were relevant
• which modes of transport were used

ShipCheck uses exactly this real transport data at the shipment level to evaluate tender offers. The only problem: a tender isn't run for the past year. It decides future transports.

If the transport profile changes, an offer that looks especially cheap based on last year's volumes may perform differently under future volumes. That's why ShipCheck lets you factor a sales forecast, alongside historical volumes, into the tender calculation. The planned volumes are then calculated using the actually quoted rates.

The decisive question in a data-driven tender is therefore not just: "Which carrier would have run our past year most cheaply?" But rather: "Which offer best fits the transport profile we expect for the upcoming contract period?"

Historical shipment data remains the right starting point

A forecast doesn't replace historical data. The past initially provides the most reliable information about what the transport network actually looks like. It shows:

• real lanes
• actual volumes
• shipment structures
• modes of transport used

This means tender offers can first be calculated against a known shipment profile. ShipCheck describes data-driven tendering in exactly this way: historical shipment data is used to realistically evaluate offers and simulate different scenarios. For details on how this works, see the article Freight Tender Software.

The forecast adds to this basis by asking: What will change in the upcoming contract period?

The problem with "we'll just use last year's volumes"

For stable transport structures, this can work. It gets harder when the company changes. For example:

• a product line grows strongly
• a location gains importance
• a new region is opened up
• certain lanes lose volume
• new lanes emerge
• total shipment volume changes

In that case, a tender based purely on last year's data calculates very precisely: what would have happened with the previous volumes? But at least as important for the award decision is: what do we expect for the period we are actually tendering for?

Why volume shifts can change carrier evaluations

A carrier can be especially cheap on certain lanes and perform worse on others. This means the economic significance of a rate advantage changes as soon as volume shifts between those lanes.

A simplified example: last year, only a few transports were on lane A. For next year, the company expects strong growth there. A carrier that is especially competitive on lane A may have had only minor significance in the historical result. In the forecast, the same carrier can become considerably more relevant.

The rates themselves haven't changed. What has changed is the weighting of the transports to which those rates apply. This is exactly why ShipCheck allows sales forecasts to be factored into the tender calculation.

Historical and forecast scenarios should be considered separately

A forecast shouldn't simply overwrite the past. It's more sensible to compare several scenarios.

• Historical scenario: How do the offers perform if the past period's transport profile stays unchanged?
• Expected scenario: How do the same offers perform with the planned future volumes?
• Alternative scenario: How do the results change if individual volumes grow more or less than expected?

This makes visible how strongly the tender results depend on the underlying volume assumptions. ShipCheck explicitly supports what-if scenarios and can simulate different volume and route combinations.

Which changes can be examined in scenarios?

The ShipCheck materials name several concrete use cases:

• volume growth
• new lanes
• different carrier mixes
• fuel price changes

It's not about automatically predicting the future. It's about changing concrete assumptions and then calculating: what do these assumptions mean for our logistics costs under the quoted rates?

When individual lanes grow differently

For freight tenders, what often matters isn't whether total volume grows. What matters more is: where does it grow? A company might grow 10% overall, for example, while:

• a core lane grows by 30%
• another stays stable
• a third declines significantly

These exact shifts can change the carrier evaluation. If more volume moves to a lane where carrier B is significantly cheaper than carrier A, that rate advantage gains weight in the overall result.

A meaningful forecast calculation therefore asks not only: "How much more volume do we expect?" But: "On which lanes do we expect this volume?"

When new lanes are added

The future differs even more from the past when new transport flows emerge. For example, due to:

• a new market
• a new location
• a new customer region
• changed goods flows

There may be no historical volume for this lane. It can still be relevant for the upcoming tender period. ShipCheck explicitly names new lanes as a possible scenario within tendering. This means the tender can not only recalculate the existing network but also account for expected changes.

Why forecast and carrier allocation belong together

A changed transport profile can affect not only the ranking of individual offers. It can also change which carrier mix performs best economically.

Suppose: carrier A is especially cheap on today's high-volume lanes. Carrier B is cheaper on a lane that is still small today but is forecast to grow strongly. Then the most sensible carrier allocation can also change with the future transport profile.

ShipCheck enables various models for allocating shipments to carriers and different options across providers and lanes. Learn more in the article Primary Carrier or Multi-Carrier.

Why a forecast is more than "plus 10 percent"

A forecast quickly becomes too coarse if only the total volume is increased across the board. Because +10% can mean very different things:

• every lane grows roughly equally
• a single lane grows strongly
• new lanes are added
• the shipment mix shifts

The total growth is identical. The consequences for the tender can still be very different. That's why ShipCheck supports different volume and route combinations instead of just one blanket overall view.

What a sales forecast can contribute to a freight tender

Sales and logistics often look at different parts of the same company development. Sales, for example, knows:

• where growth is expected
• which regions are becoming more important
• where new customers or volumes could arise

Logistics must then derive:

• which goods flows emerge
• which lanes will carry more load
• which transport costs result

ShipCheck explicitly enables applying a sales forecast to tender results. The sales forecast thus turns from a revenue plan into a concrete input for the transport cost calculation.

What ShipCheck does not do

An important distinction: ShipCheck does not automatically generate the company's revenue or sales forecast. The forecast is an assumption, or planning basis, that feeds into the tender calculation.

The software then answers: what would the quoted rates cost under this expected transport profile? That's different from an AI that independently predicts future demand. The value lies in calculating and comparing different scenarios based on the tender offers.

Why multiple scenarios can be better than a single forecast

A forecast is not a certainty. That's why it can make sense to calculate several plausible variants:

• Base scenario: the expected development
• Growth scenario: certain volumes increase more strongly
• Conservative scenario: development turns out weaker

This makes it possible to check: does the same carrier, or the same award structure, remain attractive under several plausible assumptions? If the same award performs similarly across multiple scenarios, it's less dependent on a single volume assumption. If not, it at least becomes visible which assumptions the decision is particularly sensitive to.

Forecasts also improve budget planning

The forecast doesn't just influence carrier selection. It also creates a better basis for expected logistics costs. ShipCheck explicitly describes the forecast feature as aiming to calculate logistics costs based on planned volumes and actual tender rates, thereby improving planning and budget certainty.

That's a key difference from a budget that simply extrapolates last year's costs. After a tender, new rates are available. A forecast connects these new rates with the planned future volumes.

Historical costs, tender rates, and forecast are three different layers

• Historical costs: What have the transports actually cost so far?
• New tender offers: What rates are participants offering for the upcoming period?
• Forecast: What transport structure does the company expect for this period?

Only the combination answers the relevant future question: what would the quoted rates cost given our expected transport profile? That's the core of the forecast logic in tendering.

Why lane and shipment matter more than a global annual budget

The more granular the underlying assumptions, the more precisely the expected transport structure can be modeled. ShipCheck calculates costs based on its own transport data down to the individual transport and breaks down tender results by lane and mode of transport. For how shipment data can be prepared for this, see the article Automatically Evaluating Carrier Invoices and Shipment Data.

This allows a forecast to be connected using the same logic: what volumes do we expect on which parts of the transport network? That's more meaningful for a tender than merely a global shipping budget for the coming year.

Which questions should a forecast answer in a freight tender?

• How would the offers perform with historical volumes? The historical scenario provides a reference.
• How do the results change with the expected future volumes? This is where the sales or volume forecast comes in.
• What happens if individual lanes grow more strongly? This shows how sensitive the carrier evaluation is to shifts in the network.
• What happens with new lanes? New goods flows can be directly incorporated into the future outlook.
• Does the best carrier allocation change? A different transport profile can make a different carrier mix more economically attractive.
• How does the expected logistics budget change? The quoted rates can be applied to the planned volumes.

ShipCheck offers forecast and what-if features within tendering precisely for such variants.

How ShipCheck uses forecasts in freight tenders

• 1. Historical shipment data forms the starting point – real transport data shows the existing shipment profile.
• 2. Tender offers are applied to this data – creating a comparison based on the known transport structure.
• 3. Future volumes can be added – ShipCheck can apply sales forecasts to the tender results.
• 4. Alternative scenarios are simulated – such as volume growth, new lanes, or different carrier mixes.
• 5. Results are compared – making visible how carriers, costs, and allocation models develop under different assumptions.

This means the forecast doesn't become an additional spreadsheet alongside the tender. It becomes part of the actual offer calculation.

Conclusion: The tender shouldn't just optimize for last year

Historical shipment data is an important basis for every data-driven freight tender. But it only answers: what did our transport profile look like so far? The award decision, however, concerns the upcoming contract period. That's why you should also ask:

• What volumes do we expect?
• Which lanes are growing or newly emerging?
• How do the tender results change as a result?
• Does the same carrier allocation remain economically sound?

ShipCheck combines historical transport data with tender rates and additionally enables the inclusion of sales forecasts as well as what-if scenarios. The most important question is therefore not just: "Who would have been cheapest with last year's volumes?" But: "Who is cheapest given the transport profile we actually expect for the future?"